Former President Trump has his eyes set on a second term in the White House. But he might be thinking twice about it.
Because Trump is seriously worried about what is waiting for him at the White House.
When Donald Trump started his first term as President of the United States back in January 2017, he entered the Oval Office with a very friendly legislative branch in Congress. During his first term, Republicans held a small majority in the U.S. Senate and a very significant majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
He walked into a great opportunity to pass conservative-friendly legislation as Republicans controlled the Executive and Legislative branches of the federal government. Some conservatives are critical of how much Donald Trump and the Republicans were able to get accomplished during the first two years of his tenure, but they were able to get some significant bills passed such as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Though the writing on the wall this time around indicates that Donald Trump will be up against it should he win a second term in the White House as he is currently favorited to do according to the polls and surveys.
High-profile retirements among House Republicans are signaling potential policy and electoral challenges for the party during the upcoming 119th Congress, according to experts consulted by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The party has been marred by public controversies exposing significant internal divisions, notably the tumultuous process surrounding Kevin McCarthy’s election as House Speaker in January 2023, which involved 15 rounds of voting and witnessed defections from Republican ranks. Following McCarthy’s removal and a chaotic succession process marked by failed votes, several senior members of Congress have opted for retirement, raising concerns among experts about the loss of policy expertise and electoral prospects for the majority.
Kevin Kosar, co-founder of the Legislative Branch Working Group and former acting research manager of the Congressional Research Service, highlighted the significance of losing seasoned committee chairs who wield considerable influence over policy-making and executive oversight. This trend, he emphasized, should deeply concern the Republican Party as it signals the departure of skilled legislators.
“Particularly troubling is that the GOP is losing seasoned chairpersons, these are people who lead committees and therefore have great sway over policy-making and oversight of the executive branch,” Kevin Kosar said.
A statement from Congressman Gallagher. pic.twitter.com/93xhZIyVRb
— Rep. Gallagher Press Office (@RepGallagher) February 10, 2024
Committee chairs play a pivotal role in shaping federal policy, conducting oversight, and organizing hearings that can have far-reaching consequences, such as the resignation of two university presidents following a hearing on anti-Semitism in December 2023. The retirement of prominent chairs like Kay Granger, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Patrick McHenry, Mike Gallagher, and Mark Green — although Green is reportedly reconsidering — underscores the scale of the exodus, with a total of 21 Republicans opting out of reelection bids.
Josh Chafetz, professor of law and politics at Georgetown University, acknowledged the House’s centralized decision-making structure but stressed the irreplaceable value of experienced lawmakers. While committees may have diminished in influence, the departure of seasoned legislators could impact governance, particularly in shaping legislative tactics.
The changing landscape within the Republican Party, with former President Trump’s influence reshaping its identity, is reflected in the retirements of veteran lawmakers associated with more traditional conservatism. This political realignment, experts warned, could spell trouble for House Republicans in the upcoming elections, especially considering their net negative approval rating among Republican voters — a historic first for an incumbent party, according to Navigator Research.
Experts view these retirements as warning signs, indicating potential governance challenges and the risk of losing the majority in November. William F. Buckley O’Reilly, a longtime Republican political strategist, echoed these sentiments, describing Congress as an increasingly thankless environment where members struggle to effect meaningful change amidst partisan gridlock.
To be sure, Republicans are currently poised to take back control of the U.S. Senate as twice as many Democrats are defending seats in November as compared to their Republican counterparts.
The U.S. House could go either way, but the majority is unlikely to be significant for either party in the chamber with 435 Representatives. The U.S. House has always been a harder chamber to predict electorally and politically in-season.
Regardless, Donald Trump is bound to have a tougher time connecting with the Republican legislators should he win a second term in the White House.
Some conservatives view this as a possible win if Republicans are able to regain control of Congress once again with Donald Trump in the Oval Office in control of the signing pen. A new fresh field of Republicans would potentially be beneficial. We all know how much the RINOs have been a pain in the neck for conservatives all over the country.
On the flip side, it may make a Republican control of the Congressional chambers more difficult to win in November and then maintain with inexperienced Republicans at the helm.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
