Trump and the Republicans were flying high. Now they’ve been brought back to earth.
Because Trump and the U.S. Senate Republicans have received terrible Election Day news.
Nebraska Senate Race Tightens as Fischer Faces Osborn Challenge
With just 18 days remaining until election night, Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska is facing a surprisingly close contest. Historically a strong contender, Fischer has won her previous Senate races by margins of at least 14 points. However, recent polling from FiveThirtyEight shows her leading independent candidate Dan Osborn by a mere one point, marking this race as the closest in the country.
“This race should not be close,” said Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska Omaha. “She should be winning by a very healthy margin—and she’s not.”
Osborn, who has never held public office, is backed by progressive dark money groups, bringing a unique appeal to a traditionally Republican state. His campaign combines a populist approach with military and labor union credentials, making Nebraska a competitive target for a Democratic pickup. Despite Fischer’s tightening race, her campaign remains optimistic, believing that negative ads branding Osborn as a “Democrat in disguise” will resonate with voters as they learn more about his policies.
According to internal polling obtained by reporters, Fischer is currently up by seven points, although around 4.2% of voters remain undecided. This represents a slight improvement from earlier polls, which indicated a similar lead but with a higher percentage of undecided voters.
“This poll confirms what we saw in last week’s poll results, that Nebraskans simply don’t agree with Dan Osborn’s support for amnesty, social security for illegal immigrants, extreme abortion, VP Harris’ plan to end the filibuster, or Bernie Sanders,” stated Derek Oden, Fischer’s campaign manager. “We expect this positive trend to continue as more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn isn’t an independent—he’s a liberal Democrat in disguise.”
Conversely, the Osborn campaign has reported similar internal polling results indicating that he is also maintaining a competitive edge.
Polls showing Fischer and Osborn close are crazy because Nebraska hasn't had a close US Senate election since 2000
2000: D+2
2002: R+68
2006: D+28
2008: R+17
2012: R+16
2014: R+33
2018: R+19
2020: R+32*Nelson shellacking Ricketts in 2006…the good old days.
— Bobby Larsen (@_ASAPBobby) October 18, 2024
Financial backing for Osborn’s campaign has been significant, with the Retire Career Politicians PAC contributing over $3 million. This PAC is partly financed by the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a progressive network supported by George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. Recently, actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus hosted a tele-fundraiser to bolster Osborn’s candidacy, further amplifying his campaign’s reach.
The Nebraska State Republican Party has criticized Osborn’s strategy, describing it as “smoke and mirrors” to distance himself from the Democratic label, which may be perceived as too toxic in a predominantly red state. Party chairman Eric Underwood warned that similar tactics could emerge in other red states, as Democrats seek independent candidates to siphon votes.
Political analysts have noted that Fischer’s campaign may have been caught off guard after facing a noncompetitive primary challenger, which led to a lack of early campaigning. “They realize now that they’re in a very competitive race,” Adkins commented. He pointed to the significant financial contributions and Fischer’s increased presence on the campaign trail as indicators of this realization.
To secure their position, national Republican groups have invested heavily in Nebraska, with the National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC) spending at least $700,000, including a joint advertising effort with Fischer’s campaign.
As the race heats up, negative ads targeting Osborn have become increasingly aggressive. In one such ad, former President Donald Trump labels Osborn a “radical left person,” positioning him as a dangerous alternative to Fischer.
Despite the attacks, Osborn has publicly acknowledged his admiration for Senator Bernie Sanders, stating, “I love Bernie,” while emphasizing the need to attract conservative voters.
While Osborn has claimed that he will not caucus with either party if elected, skeptics remain unconvinced. Underwood expressed doubt, asserting that Osborn’s policies suggest he would likely align with the Democratic Party even though he tries to sell himself as an “independent.” Odds are that he will caucus with the Democrats if he wins a term in office.
One small note to consider is that the majority of polling out of Nebraska is hard to weigh properly because most of the polls are party-sponsored, so independent polls and surveys are hard to come by in the region.
*Every* single poll here has been sponsored by either the Fischer or Osborn campaigns
can we just get one actual non-partisan poll here pls pic.twitter.com/R5eW9eVyoM
— Roll with Reagan ✝️🍷🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@NeoReaganism) October 11, 2024
Be sure to stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
