The Trump campaign is at a crossroads. What happens next will change everything.
As Donald Trump has this critical decision to make before the Presidential election.
In the upcoming November election, the gender gap could be a decisive factor, with various polls showing former President Donald Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris among women voters.
While Trump maintains a strong lead among male voters, he still has time to sway more women, particularly moderate and suburban voters. His best avenues for appeal include issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration, and defending women’s sports and bodily autonomy. How he decides to approach winning over more female voters will be critical.
Large gender gap among 18-39 likely voters.
% Supporting Harris…
LV Young men: 57%
LV Young women: 73%Notably, the gender gap is wider among LVs than all adults. Consistent w/ the finding that Trump seems to do better among less engaged young men. pic.twitter.com/HnqeNXlDdW
— Daniel Cox (@dcoxpolls) September 9, 2024
Trump’s potential lies in addressing the economic concerns many women face. Harris’ track record, marked by rising inflation and economic strain, has left a significant number of women, especially seniors, in financial hardship. These women, many of whom live on fixed incomes, have been disproportionately affected by the 20% inflation rise over the past few years, coupled with Harris’ support of policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, which opponents argue compromises the Medicare Part D program.
Democrats often position abortion as a central issue for women, but recent trends suggest it may not hold as much sway as anticipated. A Pew study found that although 67% of Harris supporters still prioritize abortion, its importance has waned since the 2022 midterms.
The Monthly Abortion Provision Study also revealed an 11% increase in abortion rates from 2020, indicating that access to abortion services remains available despite claims to the contrary. With legal access in all 50 states, concerns over restricted abortion access might not resonate as strongly with voters as other issues.
Suburban women, particularly those leaning Republican, show more openness to broader abortion access than their rural counterparts. However, a majority of suburban Republican women still identify as pro-life. This highlights a key distinction that Trump could exploit, focusing on how Harris’ policies fail to support women beyond abortion rights.
NEW Far more women voters say the fact that Trump is a man will help him (44%) than hurt him (7%) with voters (53% say it won't make much difference).
Women are more divided over impact of Harris' gender: 38% help/33% hurt (29% little difference).https://t.co/ambbFNfuTD pic.twitter.com/OvZ4LyiT2M— Carroll Doherty (@CarrollDoherty) September 9, 2024
Trump can further capitalize on Harris’ perceived failures regarding women’s rights. He could challenge her support for the Biden administration’s expansion of Title IX to include gender identity, arguing it undermines women’s safety in spaces like locker rooms and restrooms.
Public opinion largely opposes allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports, and Trump could emphasize this stance to bolster his appeal among women concerned about fairness and bodily integrity.
Beyond domestic issues, Trump could criticize Harris’ foreign policy record, particularly her handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Harris’ defense of the withdrawal, which led to the Taliban’s oppressive treatment of Afghan women, as well as the death of 13 U.S. service members, provides Trump with further ammunition. Her silence on the escalating s*xual violence faced by migrant women at the U.S. southern border also contrasts with her pro-women rhetoric, leaving her vulnerable to attacks on her consistency in protecting women’s rights.
As the election nears, Trump’s ability to highlight these contradictions and present himself as a defender of women’s economic and personal security may determine whether he can close the gap among female voters and secure victory.
Trump’s Success With Male Voters Crucial This November
Joe Biden was able to close the gap on male voters when he ran against Donald Trump in 2020, and that proved to be key to him “winning” that year. In 2016, Trump won male voters to the tune of eleven points.
Polls are indicating Trump is on pace for that eleven point dominance with male voters once again, and he may even be able to outperform his own 2016 turnout. Particularly due to young voters, more than ever, backing Donald Trump more than in the previous two Presidential elections.
Atlas Intel shows massive shifts from 2020 towards Trump across most demographics:
Among men (+11), women (+5), college graduates (+13), the 18-29 age group (+19), Hispanics (+8), Blacks (+36), and Asians (+42).
IDK man. pic.twitter.com/zT2VE1FAt2
— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) September 14, 2024
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
