This is a disaster scenario for former President Trump. It could keep him from winning in November.
And Donald Trump is pressuring for answers from his campaign for this colossal failure.
There’s a state that is suddenly in play as a swing state that no one thought was going to be remotely close just a few short months ago. That state? North Carolina. A state that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, and one that he must keep in his corner to (realistically) win this November.
He won the state by about three to four points against Hillary Clinton back in 2016, a somewhat solid margin for the Trump campaign that year. 2020 was much closer, though. He barely won that state by about a point. Now the reports are that the state is basically a toss up.
MSNBC’s national political correspondent, Steve Kornacki, provided an in-depth analysis of the close race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina during a segment on Chris Jansing Reports on Wednesday. His breakdown highlighted the state’s recent electoral history and the potential for a Democratic victory in the upcoming 2024 election.
Kornacki noted that Trump narrowly won North Carolina in the past two presidential elections, securing 49.9% of the vote to President Joe Biden’s 48.6% in 2020 and 49.8% to Hillary Clinton’s 46.2% in 2016. He emphasized that Democrats do not need to make drastic changes to their strategy to potentially flip the state in 2024.
“North Carolina’s been close … Take a look back at 2016, Donald Trump carried the state, it was by about three and a half points. You could see Democrats erased more than half of that Trump margin from 2016 in 2020, brought it down to just about a 75,000 vote difference between Trump and Biden in 2020. So, we’re talking about not huge changes needed here for Democrats to actually flip the state,” Kornacki said.
He explained that Democrats “draw hope” from the state’s urban areas and densely populated suburbs, which have become more Democratic in recent years, while rural areas have shifted more Republican. Kornacki pointed out Wake County as a key example, where Biden won 62.3% of the vote compared to Trump’s 35.8% in 2020, continuing a trend of Democratic victories in the area, including those of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
“So what Democrats see is these are big population centers, importantly, that are growing. They’re gaining population and they’re becoming more Democratic,” Kornacki added.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacki breaks down tight race in North Carolina where Trump won twice pic.twitter.com/Cn5NgpTDWH
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 28, 2024
However, Kornacki also stressed the importance of rural, Republican-leaning counties, which have consistently bolstered Republican candidates in the state. He highlighted Surry County, where Trump secured a decisive victory in 2020, winning 75.2% of the vote compared to Biden’s 23.8%. This marked a significant increase from the 28-point lead Republicans held in 2008 to a 52-point lead in 2020.
Kornacki also discussed the performance of counties with majority African American populations, noting that while Biden won these counties in 2020, his margins were not as strong as those achieved by Obama.
“That might be the key variable when you talk about these two major forces driving politics in North Carolina. Can Kamala Harris and the Democrats get back more to that Obama level in these counties than say Biden did in 2020 or Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That, in a margin this small, could make a big difference,” Kornacki stated.
As of Wednesday, Trump holds a slight lead over Harris in North Carolina, with polling data from FiveThirtyEight showing Trump at 45.8% and Harris at 45.5%.
Robert F. Kennedy’s Massive Swing State Impact
In a related development, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign on Friday and endorsed Trump, aiming to be removed from swing state ballots. However, it may be too late for Kennedy to be removed from the North Carolina ballot, as absentee ballots are set to be distributed starting September 6, according to CBS News.
Regardless, the endorsement from Kennedy is one that will take several weeks to show up in the polls. After Kamala Harris entered the race in Joe Biden’s stead, Kennedy’s performance in the polls took a hit. It’s unlikely that the remainder of his support is remotely interested in voting for Kamala Harris if they’ve been holding out this long.
The remaining Kennedy support is going to be heavily encouraged by Robert F. Kennedy and his running mate Nicole Shanahan to vote for Donald Trump, aligning themselves very closely with the Trump campaign in recent weeks.
It’s entirely possible that North Carolina will be decided by Robert F. Kennedy supporters who either break for or against Donald Trump this November.
🚨RFK JR. JUST TOLD OVER 20,000 THAT RIGHTFUL PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL REMOVE CHEMICALS FROM FOOD!
"Don't you want healthy children?"
Kamala definitely isn't happy about this!
Share to make this go viral! pic.twitter.com/TEajEiRbgf
— Bo Loudon (@BoLoudon) August 24, 2024
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