Harris thought she could save the day for Democrats. The opposite is happening.
Because Kamala Harris has fallen far behind Joe Biden in this key election poll.
Vice President Kamala Harris is facing a significant challenge in the 2024 election, especially when it comes to replicating the gender gap that contributed to President Joe Biden’s success in 2020. MSNBC data reporter Steve Kornacki has highlighted this issue, noting that Harris is struggling to achieve the same advantage among women that helped Biden win four years ago.
This trend raises concerns for Democrats that without a stronger performance in creating a gender gap, Harris may not be able to match even Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing against Donald Trump, potentially jeopardizing the Democratic ticket.
The Numbers Behind the Gender Gap
In a recent analysis, Kornacki pointed out that in national polling averages from July 31 to August 18, Trump trails Harris by only 1.5% in a head-to-head matchup. This gap remains nearly unchanged even when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Dr. Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included. Kornacki explained that while the gender gap—a phenomenon dating back to the 1980 election—remains intact, Harris is not outperforming expectations enough to secure a decisive lead.
Looking specifically at male voters, Kornacki noted that Trump had a five-point lead among men over Biden in the 2020 election. During Biden’s 2024 campaign before he stepped aside, that margin had grown to a 12-point lead for Trump. Since Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump’s lead among men has shrunk slightly to seven points, reflecting a modest improvement for Democrats but still leaving a substantial male voter advantage for Trump.
On the other hand, Biden had a 13-point lead among women in 2020, a margin that had dwindled to just five points before he exited the race. Since Harris took over, her lead among women has increased to nine points. While this improvement is noteworthy, it still leaves the overall gender gap at 16 points—a significant margin but not larger than the 18-point gap that was observed in 2020.
Steve Kornacki Says Kamala Harris Not Blowing Trump Away With 'Gender Gap' pic.twitter.com/SpyiNTySe8
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 20, 2024
Analyzing the Risks for Harris
The gender gap is crucial in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, and Harris must expand her appeal among women while minimizing Trump’s dominance with male voters. Kornacki’s analysis reveals that while Harris has narrowed the gap among men and widened her lead among women, the overall trend is relatively consistent with previous elections.
This consistency could be a warning sign for Democrats, as it suggests that Harris is not generating the kind of enthusiasm needed to outperform the 2020 results, let alone exceed Clinton’s performance in 2016.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016 also relied heavily on a gender gap, but she ultimately fell short in key swing states where Trump’s advantage with men outweighed her gains with women. If Harris cannot significantly improve her numbers among women, she risks facing a similar outcome. Clinton’s failure to generate a strong enough gender gap contributed to her loss in crucial battlegrounds, and Harris may be on a similar trajectory if she cannot outperform Clinton’s numbers.
The Broader Implications
The introduction of third-party candidates like Kennedy, Stein, and West adds another layer of complexity to Harris’s challenge. Polling data shows that when these candidates are included, the race tightens even further, with Trump’s lead expanding in some scenarios. This suggests that the presence of additional candidates could siphon off critical votes from Harris, particularly among younger and left-leaning voters, making it even more difficult for her to replicate or exceed the gender gap advantage seen in previous Democratic campaigns.
As the 2024 election approaches, Harris’s ability to create a gender gap large enough to offset Trump’s advantage among men will be a key factor. Without a stronger performance in this area, she risks repeating the pitfalls of Clinton’s 2016 campaign—a prospect that could lead to another narrow Democratic loss in a closely contested election.
The Democrats have been enjoying the rush since Joe Biden stepped aside as their nominee, but their joy may be misplaced. They may be forgetting that Joe Biden was able to shore up some of the male vote that heavily went for Donald Trump in 2016. That performance with male voters is ultimately the boon that Donald Trump needed to win that year.
If the 2024 results are not better than Hillary Clinton’s voter demographics breakdown and at least similar to Joe Biden’s, Kamala Harris is in real trouble of losing this election in a landslide.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
