How many more times are we going to see a change up in this election? Apparently, not enough times yet.
And Kamala Harris received a shocking test result that throws 2024 in question once again.
The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, is attempting to build momentum in the wake of President Biden’s decision not to seek a second term.
However, despite strong fundraising, a well-attended rally, and endorsements from nearly every major Democrat except Barack Obama, Harris is struggling to gain confidence among the general public that she can win — at least not yet.
In a poll conducted by YouGov between July 21 and 23, which included 1,605 respondents (1,435 of whom are registered voters), only 31% believe Harris has what it takes to secure the presidency this year.
Interestingly, this pessimism is consistent across both genders, with the 31% figure applying to both men and women.
Conversely, 52% of respondents view Trump as the likely winner.
Democrats provide Harris with some support in this metric, with 67% of her own party members believing she will win, another 14% predicting a Trump victory, and the rest unsure.
Republicans, on the other hand, are overwhelmingly confident in their candidate’s chances.
Just 3% of Republicans surveyed think Harris will win, while 91% believe Trump will prevail in November.
Independents also lean towards Trump, with 53% believing he will emerge victorious, compared to just 23% who think Harris will win.
One significant group that shows faith in Harris is Black voters, who have historically been crucial to Democratic successes in national elections.
Forty-five percent of Black respondents believe Harris will win, while only 33% predict a Trump triumph.
While many voters doubt Harris’ chances, it doesn’t mean they aren’t supporting her.
When asked about “presidential vote intent,” 41% of those polled back Harris, putting her just 3 points behind Trump, well within the +/- 3.3% margin of error and reflecting other polls that show a race too close to call.
Among the remaining 15% in the YouGov survey, a third are undecided, a third back Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the rest are spread among minor candidates.
Trump has largely consolidated Republican support, with 92% backing him, 3% supporting Kennedy, and 2% supporting Harris.
Democrats, for now, show a bit more division.
Harris has 86% support within her party, but 5% are unsure, 3% back Kennedy, and 2% back Trump.
Independents are still up for grabs, with Trump holding a slight edge at 37% compared to Harris’ 32%. Of the rest, 11% support Kennedy and 9% are undecided.
Harris enjoys majority support among Black voters (63% to 14% over Trump), Hispanics (44% to 40%), and self-described “moderates” (41% to 31% over Trump), a potentially crucial metric in battleground states.
A gender gap is also apparent in the preference poll.
Harris leads slightly among women, 43% to 41%, with 7% undecided, Kennedy at 6%, and the rest divided among minor candidates.
Male voters prefer Trump, but not by a majority. The former president leads Harris by 8 points (47% to 39%), with Kennedy at 5%, 3% undecided, and the remainder supporting other candidates.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
