Harris thought she would have a cake walk to November. That’s not happening.
And Kamala Harris was just stopped in her tracks by this massive 2024 election update.
Democrats were hoping that getting Joe Biden out of the picture would be the solution to all their problems. Kamala Harris could be anointed queen of the Democrat party even though she’s never won any Presidential primary or a single delegate for that matter, and they’d be on their way to keeping Trump out of office for another four years.
It’s not that simple. Kamala Harris is running into a brick wall keeping her from reaching the high heights she and her fellow Democrats thought would come. The truth is that Trump is still the one who has the wind in his sails and the election in his hands. Even CNN is admitting it.
Kamala Harris Faces Challenging Path Against Donald Trump in Upcoming Election, Warns CNN Reporter
In a recent analysis, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten highlighted the formidable challenges Vice President Kamala Harris will face in her bid to defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election. This follows President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race and endorse Harris, amid consistently poor polling performances against Trump.
During a segment on CNN News Central, Enten emphasized the uphill battle Harris has against Trump, who has seen a surge in popularity following the Republican National Convention and after surviving an assassination attempt.
“For all the excitement that Democrats have over Kamala Harris, it is going to be difficult to beat Donald Trump, and I want to give you an understanding of why,” Enten explained to host Sara Sidner. “Take a look at the favorable views of Donald Trump. Historically, he has been unpopular, but now, after the Republican National Convention, in the ABC News/Ipsos poll, he recorded his highest ever favorable rating at 40%. And that’s not an isolated incident.”
Enten further elaborated, “The Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump with a 46% favorable rating, the highest ever recorded by that pollster. The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he has ever been before. So, yes, Democrats can make this switch, but they’re still going to have to contend with a stronger Donald Trump.”
CNN's Harry Enten Sounds Alarm On How 'Difficult' It'll Be For Kamala Harris To 'Beat Donald Trump' pic.twitter.com/tLui8t5mDN
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 23, 2024
Pollster Nate Silver recently characterized Harris as “mediocre at best,” suggesting that Trump would likely defeat her if she replaced Biden, despite her apparent mental fitness compared to the president.
“Donald Trump is running five points better than he was four years ago against Joe Biden,” Enten noted. “At this point, whether you look at favorable ratings or horse race polling, Trump is doing significantly better than he was four years ago. Kamala Harris will need to perform better if she wants to win the popular vote and the Electoral College. If the national popular vote is tied, that likely won’t be sufficient for Harris to win the election against Donald Trump.”
Kamala Harris Brings More Swing State Blues For The Democrats
Democrats are parading around Kamala Harris and celebrating the money they’ve been bringing in since Joe Biden has announced his intention to no longer seek a second term for President. Of course, the reality is that much of the fundraising for Democrats were drying up after the debate and before Joe Biden announced his campaign suspension, but that’s not even the most important factor.
The most important factor is that Harris is struggling big time in the swing states. She simply isn’t bringing enthusiasm to get out voters for her at the top of the ticket in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those states are still either tossups or favoring Donald Trump.
Here's where I see the race rn, and I'll be generous:
Yes, maybe Harris allows you to win back Michigan and Wisconsin, but by all accounts she doesn't poll that good in PA, and Trump has fortified his lead lately.
We are all living in Brandon Finnigan's world. pic.twitter.com/mKm09JQdLe
— Kevin Tierney (@CatholicSmark) July 22, 2024
The reality is that Democrats must win Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennslyvania to have a chance. Any faltering in those states will produce an almost certain Trump win. Even if you were to assume all four of those states were perfect tossups that have an exactly 50% shot of falling for either Harris or Trump, there would only be a 6% chance of Democrats getting all four states which is what’s necessary for them to have a remote chance in the overall election.
Kamala Harris is up against it. The Democrats can get excited all they want. But the reality is that Trump has been making all the progress in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The white, blue-collar working class in those states have been shifting into Donald Trump’s favor with his very populist messaging this year.
A California prosecutor with next to zero charisma is a hard sell for the citizens in those crucial swing states.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
