President Trump is hard at work accomplishing his agenda. But eyes are already on 2028.
Now a clear favorite to replace Trump emerged and some people aren’t happy.
A recent J.L. Partners poll positions Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential primary, far outpacing other potential contenders. Conducted May 13-14, the survey highlights Vance’s dominance amid a crowded field of Trump allies and former rivals, signaling his rising influence within the GOP.
Vance’s Commanding Lead in the GOP
The J.L. Partners poll reveals that 46% of registered voters favor Vance as the 2028 Republican nominee, a stark contrast to the single-digit support for his competitors.
The 40-year-old vice president, a Yale Law graduate and author of Hillbilly Elegy, has solidified his stature as a Trump loyalist and effective communicator on issues like immigration, trade, and social policy.
President Trump praised Vance’s role in championing “the hardworking men and women of our Country” when selecting him as his running mate in July 2024.
J.L. Partners’ Caroline Mulvaney noted that Vance “can expect to gain further support from voters who are currently supporting individuals unlikely to end up on the 2028 ticket,” highlighting his strong position as Trump’s potential successor.
Competitive Landscape of Contenders
Despite Vance’s lead, other prominent Republicans remain in the mix, though none garner more than 8% support.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy receive 8% and 7%, respectively, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) each hold 6%.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley trails with 5%. Rubio, a close ally of Vance, enjoys a hypothetical 57% support among Republicans if nominated, per the poll. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., surges to 14% when included, but Vance retains a commanding 40%.
Trump himself has praised the GOP’s “tremendous” bench, telling NBC’s Kristin Welker, “You look at Marco, you look at JD Vance, who’s fantastic,” while avoiding naming a definitive successor. The poll reflects a fragmented field, with Vance’s lead highlighting his unique appeal.
Implications for the Republican Party’s Future
Vance’s dominance in the poll, conducted by J.L. Partners with a 3.1% margin of error, signals a consolidation of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement around a younger, dynamic figure.
His friendly rivalry with Rubio, whom he calls “probably my best friend in the administration,” suggests a cohesive leadership circle despite competition.
The survey also captures Democratic struggles, with Kamala Harris leading a hypothetical 2028 primary at 30%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 8%.
Trump’s flirtation with a third term via a Vance-led ticket, though constitutionally questionable, emphasizes his lingering influence.
As DeSantis and Haley show little appetite for another run and Cruz eyes a comeback, Vance’s lead positions him as the GOP’s likely standard-bearer, shaping the party’s trajectory toward 2028.
