There’s a storm waiting for Trump. It’s a real problem he can’t ignore.
And now Donald Trump’s second term is in jeopardy because of what Joe Biden’s leaving for him in the White House.
Looming Dockworkers’ Strike Threatens to Disrupt U.S. Economy as Trump Takes Office
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office this month, a costly and disruptive dockworkers’ strike looms large, potentially thrusting the incoming administration into a major domestic crisis just days into its tenure.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which represents around 47,000 workers at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, has announced plans to strike on January 15. This comes after a brief three-day strike in October, which resulted in the union securing a 62% pay raise over six years from the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). However, negotiations over other critical issues — particularly port automation — remain stalled, heightening the likelihood of a large work stoppage.
Industry giant Maersk, a key player in global shipping, warned in a customer advisory on January 3 that no significant progress had been made in negotiations, particularly regarding automation. The company urged customers to take proactive steps before the strike deadline by retrieving containers and returning empties to U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports in a bid to mitigate potential disruptions.
Should the strike proceed, it would be a severe blow to the U.S. economy, particularly for smaller businesses reliant on timely shipments of goods. According to a report by JP Morgan, the October strike, which lasted just three days, was estimated to cost the U.S. economy up to $5 billion per day in lost productivity and supply chain disruptions.
Brent Sadler, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, emphasized the severe impact a strike would have on small businesses. “If you’re a small company and you’re waiting for bulk supply and materials to arrive in for your small or medium-sized factory, you might have an economic impact that’s pretty severe,” Sadler told the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF). “I don’t think that’s good for anyone.”
A strike in January, Sadler continued, would likely create significant backlogs at East Coast ports, potentially causing weeks of delays. “What you very likely will see, at least in the East Coast ports, is a backlog of ships at anchor,” he said. “A week backlog is going to take you probably two or three weeks clear. So the shippers will then start to redirect their ships to other ports, like the West Coast, adding more economic cost.”
Automation Is At The Core of the Dispute
One of the most contentious issues driving the labor dispute is the growing trend of port automation. The ILA argues that the increased use of automated technologies could result in significant job losses, undermining the livelihood of longshoremen. President Trump, who has expressed skepticism toward automation’s effects on American workers, appears to side with the union’s concerns.
On December 12, Trump posted on Truth Social, criticizing the push for increased automation at U.S. docks. “I’ve studied automation and know just about everything there is to know about it,” Trump wrote. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American workers, in this case, our longshoremen.”
Trump’s statements reflect a valid populist concern about job losses to automation, with many fearing that technological advancements, while efficient, come at a heavy cost to workers. Experts have noted that the connection between automation and improved port efficiency is not as clear-cut as proponents suggest. A 2021 study by the International Transport Forum found no compelling evidence linking port automation with increased efficiency. Similarly, a 2024 U.S. Government Accountability Office study acknowledged some improvements in efficiency but also highlighted “mixed effects on the workforce, security, and performance.”
Adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing labor dispute is the involvement of foreign companies, particularly Chinese firms like China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), which are part of the USMX. These foreign companies hold substantial leverage in negotiations, raising concerns about both the economic and national security implications of the strike.
In a congressional investigation last year, mysterious communications devices were discovered on cranes made by ZMPC, a Chinese crane manufacturer. Though Beijing dismissed U.S. concerns as “paranoia,” the discovery has sparked fears over potential vulnerabilities in the nation’s critical infrastructure.
Michael Watson, research director at the Capital Research Center, pointed out that the U.S. government’s reliance on foreign shipping companies in such a strategic sector could be risky. “You’ve got to ask yourself: If these foreign companies are able to push the union to strike or manipulate the process in any way, what does that mean for the broader national interest?” Watson told DCNF.
Trump and Organized Labor Have A Very Complicated Relationship
The dockworkers’ strike could test Trump’s relationship with organized labor. While many expected the Republican president to align more closely with independent workers and away from labor unions, Trump’s populist rhetoric has complicated the traditional divide.
“Some of these union bosses are starting to get a little smart about how they play their hands in the sort of more populist Republican era,” Watson said. “You’d think the Republican administration coming in is going to align with independent work and away from organized labor, but Trump has put that into question.”
This shift has already been observed in the support that some unions have shown for Trump. The New York City Police Benevolent Association and the National Border Patrol Council have voiced their support for the Republican, while the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, long aligned with the Democratic Party, refrained from endorsing a candidate in the 2024 elections, signaling a shift in rank-and-file sentiment toward Trump.
One potential strategy for Trump, should the strike occur, could be to follow the example of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who successfully faced down coal mining unions in the 1980s. Thatcher initially conceded to union demands but simultaneously stockpiled coal reserves to mitigate the impact of future strikes.
Watson suggested that Trump might need to make similar concessions to the Longshoremen in the short term, but with a long-term plan to minimize future disruptions. “They may have to give the Longshoremen more than they would like to give so that they can then prepare for the next and that’s assuming that they aren’t Biden-style stooges for the longshoremen, which I don’t know,” Watson said. “The thing about Trump, because he’s so non-ideological as a figure, is that you can never be certain.”
The threat of a dockworkers’ strike represents a potentially catastrophic economic event at the very start of President-elect Trump’s administration. With the strike set to begin right before Trump’s inauguration, the new president will face a critical domestic challenge that could have far-reaching consequences for both the economy and his political capital.
As the January 15 deadline approaches, both the ILA and shipping companies continue to hold firm in their demands, with no clear resolution in sight. The outcome of these negotiations could not only determine the future of port automation but also shape the trajectory of Trump’s relationship with labor unions and his main approach to U.S. economic policy in the years to come.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
