Trump and Biden are the leaders to win the 2024 election. But they have a problem on their hands.
Because this 2024 election surprise has left Biden and Trump utterly speechless.
For the first time this election season, a poll taken on Tuesday showed that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was trailing former President Donald Trump in the crucial early primary state of New Hampshire by just single digits.
In New Hampshire, where Trump leads Haley by 39% to 32% among probable Republican primary voters, no other GOP candidate received more than 12% of the vote, per a CNN/University of New Hampshire survey. These numbers show that Haley’s support has grown by 12 points since the same survey was done in November.
The Daily Caller News Foundation was informed by Haley campaign spokeswoman AnnMarie Graham-Barnes that “this poll is more proof of what we already knew: this is a two-person race. Nikki Haley is surging, Donald Trump is dropping, and the DeSantis campaign obituary is being written.”
The poll also showed that conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy had 8% support, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie 12%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 5%, and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson 0%. In the run-up to the GOP primary on January 23, just 5% of probable voters were still on the fence.
After receiving the much sought-after endorsement of Republican New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu in mid-December, Haley witnessed an increase in her standing in the crucial early primary state’s polls.
The RealClearPolitics average currently shows the former president trailing Haley by only 13.7 points in New Hampshire, a state where she has been slowly gaining ground on Trump. At this point in the election campaign, no Republican presidential contender has been as close to Trump’s polling in New Hampshire as Nikki Haley.
But in the crucial early primary state, Haley was found to be 20 points behind Trump in a another survey that was published on the same afternoon by the Boston Globe/Suffolk University/USA Today and gathered at the same time as the CNN/University of New Hampshire survey.
According to the RCP average, Haley is currently in second position in her home state of South Carolina, which is an important early primary state. In Iowa, where the caucus is scheduled for January 15, she is tied with DeSantis, second only to Trump.
President Joe Biden gets 69% support, compared to 7% for Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips and 6% for self-help author Marianne Williamson, according to a CNN poll that also questioned probable Democratic primary voters. The revised schedule of the Democratic National Committee means that Joe Biden will not be running in the primary, but he has a sizable write-in campaign going strong in the state.
Between January 4 and 8, a total of 919 New Hampshire residents who were likely to vote in the Republican primary and 643 people who were likely to vote in the Democratic primary were polled. The margins of error for the Republican survey were 3.2% and the Democratic survey were 3.9%.
This news for Donald Trump means that it’s entirely possible that he does not have an easy time sweeping the Republican primary race as the states seem to be all over the place according to the polls.
New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, and Florida all seem to have very different feelings about how much they support Trump or the other candidates running for the Republican nomination.
Donald Trump will almost certainly need to win a few of those early primary states in order to keep his support base together, as we have seen time and again a leading candidate lose primary races unexpectedly by dropping those early primary states.
For Joe Biden, this news is mixed. On the one hand, you could argue that a rematch with Donald Trump is a nightmare for the incumbent president as his approval ratings are a dumpster fire.
Rematching against a surging Donald Trump may be a worst-case scenario. Or is it?
What happens if Nikki Haley were to upset Donald Trump in the Republican primary and win the nomination and run against Joe Biden in the general election season?
Could Joe Biden actually beat Nikki Haley? It’s hard to see that happening. Nikki Haley is thirty years younger than Joe Biden. Appearing on a debate stage against Nikki Haley would be career su*cide.
Besides that, Nikki Haley would have the opportunity to become the first female president in American history. Conservatives would absolutely jump on the opportunity to rub it in the faces of the radical Democrats by coming out in droves to vote for Haley over Biden and cementing Haley’s position as a Republican becoming the first female U.S. president.
That would break the Democrat hive-mind.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
