There’s no understating how wild this election has been. It just got more chaotic.
And the 2024 election has taken a truly stunning turn for President Joe Biden.
The fallout of the presidential debate has been on the minds of everyone ever since the conclusion of the event last month on the 27th. Thus far, it’s been all bad news for Joe Biden and the Democrats. There’s hardly any silver lining for his corner and his aides.
Upwards of three fourths of Americans agree that Joe Biden is not fit for office anymore given his obvious mental health decline, with more than half of Democrats agreeing that he’s not fit either. His own voting base is tired of the games, according to the surveys.
Or are they? The real answer is actually truly shocking, as it’s not what anyone was expecting to see after all that’s been going on in the past couple weeks.
Democratic Voters Remain Loyal to President Biden Despite Debate Missteps and Health Concerns
CNN’s data analyst, Harry Enten, highlighted that Democratic voters are standing by President Joe Biden despite his poor performance in the recent debate and ongoing concerns about his health.
Biden has faced criticism from within his own party following the June 27 CNN debate with former President Donald Trump. During the debate, Biden experienced several lapses: he froze twice, lost his train of thought, appeared stiff, and made multiple verbal errors. Despite these issues, Enten pointed out that recent polling indicates Biden’s support among voters remains stronger than that of two former incumbents, Presidents Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson, who both chose to withdraw from their re-election bids.
“Overall, yeah, the majority of Americans, 56%, say yeah, he should leave the race. But look among Democrats, this is Joe Biden’s base,” Enten said. “This is why he is the president, they nominated him back in 2020, they nominated him again in 2024, 66% of Democrats say no, he should not leave the race. And of course it’s going to be these Democratic voters who put the pressure on their members of Congress, their governors, the elected officials, party actors to try and get Biden to leave.”
“At this particular point though, the Democratic activists are not necessarily going to put the pressure on Joe Biden because the fact of the matter is most Democratic voters, two-thirds of them, want Joe Biden to stay in this race,” Enten continued. “They don’t want him to quit, Kate.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on July 1-2, which Enten referenced, showed that only 32% of Democrats believe Biden should step down. Alternative Democratic candidates such as Governors Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, and Andy Beshear of Kentucky trail Trump in hypothetical matchups. In contrast, former First Lady Michelle Obama leads Trump 50% to 39%.
Biden currently trails Trump by 2.4% in a national head-to-head matchup, according to the RealClearPolling average. When independent candidates like Cornel West, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, Trump’s lead increases to 3.8%. Despite calls for Biden to withdraw, including from Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, Enten noted that Biden’s polling numbers are still better than those of Truman and Johnson, who both exited their re-election races.
“There are two incumbents who were going to potentially run and decided to get out. In 1952, it was Harry S. Truman, in 1968, it was Lyndon Baines Johnson. So look, they quit before the nominations were decided, right? They quit as the primary season was going on,” Enten said. “This is the choice for nominee before incumbents quit. Look, in 1952 with Harry S. Truman, look at this, he was well below 50%. He was just at 31%. He was losing the primaries to Estes Kefauver at 35%. But look at that, 31%, that is way, way, way low.”
“Just 66% of Democrats right now want Joe Biden stay in the race,” Enten continued. “This was just 31% for Truman back in ’52. How about Lyndon Johnson in ‘68? After RFK entered the race, RFK was leading in the Democratic primary, 44%. Look at this. LBJ was just getting 41% of the Democratic vote. These numbers are far worse than what Joe Biden is facing right now among the Democratic electorate.”
'They Don't Want Him To Quit': CNN Data Guru Says Dem Voters Want Biden To Sick Around pic.twitter.com/PlyOyyUiaO
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 3, 2024
Enten concluded that Biden’s situation, while challenging, shows more robust support within his party compared to historical precedents, indicating that Democratic voters largely remain in his corner.
So now there’s an interesting situation going on where a vast majority of Democrats are saying that Joe Biden is unfit for office, with an extreme majority of independents and Republicans agreeing. But at the same time, these same Democrat voters are also saying they want Joe Biden to stay in the race.
Joe Biden and company could look at that as a win. Or, they could see it for what it truly is. The reality is that the Democrat base is worried about who they could actually get to replace Joe Biden. The options aren’t exactly looking good for them given that Michelle Obama has said she is not entering the race. Any other candidate has real problems that Donald Trump could exploit.
So if they look at this polling as a win, they’d be making a mistake. What this polling says is that if Joe Biden were to stay in the race, the Democrat voting base energy would be extremely low. The turnout would likely be horrendous on their side.
You simply can’t have a candidate who everyone agrees is unfit for office and have stellar turnout and high political energy. It doesn’t happen.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
