The October surprises won’t end. The Democrat Party can’t stop the bleeding.
And now an anonymous Democrat Operative has put the Harris campaign on ice.
More is coming out about how the Kamala Harris campaign is starting to seriously panic about her odds of beating Donald Trump come November. The main problem she’s facing is that she’s extremely far behind where Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were in their races against Donald Trump. In one of those cases, Donald Trump had a convincing win, and in the other it was a nail-biter.
Even CNN employees are admitting that their sources in the Democrat Party are telling them that the entire party feels like they are going to have a re-run of 2016 when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. Many political commentators have been discussing the feeling as though 2024 is a repeat of 2016.
Democratic Concerns Grow Over Harris’ Prospects Against Trump
A recent discussion on CNN’s Inside Politics with Dana Bash highlighted escalating worries among Democrats regarding Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances against former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election. As the race intensifies, current polling indicates a tight contest in the seven critical battleground states, with Trump and Harris neck and neck according to RealClearPolling averages.
CNN correspondent Priscilla Alvarez noted the prevailing anxiety among Democrats, stating, “Talk to Democrats, they’re always pretty boastful about their ground game, and they continue to be so, but that needs to turn into votes. So certainly some anxiety and nerves setting in as election day gets closer and those polls just remain deadlocked.”
Dana Bash echoed these sentiments, mentioning a conversation with a Democratic activist who expressed concerns about repeating the mistakes of 2016, stating, “I feel like we’re sleepwalking into 2016. There are a lot of differences… But the [post-traumatic stress] is real for Democrats.”
Adding to the discussion, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned that if Trump maintains his polling advantage from 2020, he could win swing states decisively against Harris. “If Trump beats his 2024 polling by the identical margin he outperformed against President Joe Biden in 2020, he will capture sufficient swing states to defeat Harris ‘in a blowout,’” Enten said.
The panel also reflected on the challenges of polling in 2016, where many potential Trump voters were not adequately captured. Senior White House correspondent Kayla Tausche explained, “There was a very big issue with polling back then not capturing the would-be Trump voter… Hillary Clinton was up by 12 points over Donald Trump. She had 50%, Trump had about 38%. And so when you look at these polls that show that Harris and Trump are still within the margin of error… that right there is one of the main reasons why you have that anxiety.”
Harris secured the Democratic nomination in July after President Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement, despite her initial lack of primary voter support. Tausche highlighted concerns within the party regarding Harris’ preparedness, noting, “The fact that she wasn’t battle-tested in the primaries is a source of consternation within the campaign.”
CNN senior political analyst Nia-Malika Henderson pointed out that Democrats are grappling with the campaign’s strategy, particularly regarding outreach. “Democrats are nervous… the idea that, is this campaign spending too much time in rural white areas, standing beside Liz Cheney and not enough with the sort of low-information base voters, right? And so that is a real worry,” she said.
Journalist Mark Halperin further emphasized the Democrats’ challenges, revealing that based on recent private polling, Harris appears to be on a concerning trajectory in key swing states. He noted a consensus among both Democratic insiders and Trump affiliates that the former president is gaining traction.
The Major Roadblock In Front Of Kamala Harris
Probably the most significant issue that Kamala Harris has yet to prove she can get past is her failing male voter support. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the male vote to Donald Trump to the tune of eleven points. That was enough, even with her huge female vote, to win the election because blue-collar areas like Pennsylvania went for Trump when the dust settled.
That almost seems to be what’s on the radar come November. Joe Biden was able to close the male voting gap and many pollsters suggest that’s why he was able to be more competitive in a race against Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton was. Notably, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania in 2020, even if it was a close margin and hotly contested.
Looking to 2024, the pre-election surveys look like they are pointing to another dominant performance for Donald Trump with male voters just like in 2016. Kamala is banking on female voters supporting her just like they did with Hillary in 2016, but if that’s the case, it may not be enough to pull out an electoral college victory.
Trump up 14% with men in WI and 19% with men in MI. NYT showed this too.
And there’s the entire ballgame https://t.co/O9E9Y2G2Td
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 9, 2024
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
