The Trump campaign is struggling. Now it may all be over.
Because this bombshell news report is putting the nail in the coffin of Trump’s campaign.
The 2024 election is likely to come down to just one state, that’s how close this upcoming Presidential election is. That state is none other than Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes that have the power to change everything. It’s possible to lose the state and still win the election, but it’s extremely unlikely because where Pennsylvania goes is an indicator for the other swing states. It also just has more electoral votes to gain compared to Georgia, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
A recent poll, conducted after last week’s debate, reveals Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state widely regarded as pivotal among the seven key battlegrounds in the upcoming general election.
The survey, conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University between September 11-14, places Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, at 49%, compared to Trump’s 46% among likely Pennsylvania voters. However, this slight advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
🚨 New – Suffolk PA poll
🦅 POTUS
🔵 Harris: 49%
🔴 Trump: 46%Harris+3
Harris wins bellwethers Erie and Northampton by mid single digits here (+4 and +5 respectively).
— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) September 17, 2024
Crucially, the poll was conducted prior to Sunday’s second assassination attempt on Trump and released on Monday, 50 days before the November 5 Election Day. Both candidates have focused heavily on Pennsylvania, as well as other key battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada — where the outcomes were similarly tight in the 2020 election. These states are expected to be decisive again in the 2024 contest.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, holds particular importance. Campaigns and their aligned super PACs have funneled more resources into Pennsylvania than into any of the other battleground states, spending heavily on ad buys and reserving future airtime, according to figures from AdImpact, a national ad tracking firm.
The Keystone State, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, forms part of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” — a trio of Rust Belt states that historically voted Democratic for 25 years until Trump narrowly won them in 2016. In 2020, President Biden reclaimed all three by slim margins, securing his victory over Trump.
In addition to her slight statewide lead, Harris holds an advantage in two bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton, according to separate USA Today/Suffolk University surveys conducted after the debate. In these counties, historically accurate in predicting the state’s overall winner, Harris leads by mid-single digits.
The polls highlight a growing gender gap that is proving beneficial for Harris. In the statewide survey, she leads Trump by 17 points among female voters, while Trump holds a narrower 12-point edge among men. Harris’s advantage among women is even more pronounced in Erie and Northampton counties.
“This is female-gender advantage on steroids,” said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, in an interview with Fox News. “In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice Trump’s edge among men.”
The USA Today/Suffolk survey is the first in Pennsylvania since the debate, which took place in Philadelphia. A CBS News poll conducted earlier in September, just before the debate, showed a tied race in the state.
Mark Harris, a Pittsburgh-based Republican strategist, emphasized Pennsylvania’s outsized significance in the election, telling Fox News Digital, “It’s the one state that it’s hard to see someone losing and then still winning the presidential race. It’s clearly ground zero.”
Some Polls Showing Trump Ahead, What Gives?
While it’s important to keep up on the latest trends in polls and surveys, no one survey or poll should be taken as proof that a candidate is absolutely going to win a state or district. There are plenty of polls showing Trump up in Pennsylvania. In fact, the average gathered by RealClearPolitics shows Trump up by an average of two points in the state.
Pennsylvania GE | Insider Advantage – 9/14-15
– Another great poll for Trump in PA. With this poll – RCP now has Trump leading in the PA aggregate.
Trump 50% (+2)
Harris 48%Sen:
Casey (D-Inc) 49% (+5)
McCormick 44%https://t.co/HfIgNsqKkq— MAGA Polling (@magapolling) September 17, 2024
The most interesting aspect to this election will be seeing whether there’s a similar 2016 and 2020 outcome where Donald Trump far outperformed expectations according to the polls.
Hillary Clinton was clobbering Donald Trump in the polls, but Donald Trump won in convincing fashion. The same was true of Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in the 2020 polls with a massive lead, and yet that election came down to the wire. One fact to note is that Kamala Harris is nowhere near where Clinton and Biden were at this point in the race four and eight years ago. That’s a problem for her if Trump keeps up the trend of performing extremely well on election day with turnout.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
