The 2024 election’s taken a strange turn. No one could’ve predicted this.
And now Donald Trump is toast as this terrible news reaches the Trump campaign.
There’s one doomsday scenario that the Trump campaign is going to have to do everything to avoid. In this scenario, Donald Trump has virtually no path to making it back to the White House for a second term as President of the United States. What is that scenario? Donald Trump losing Florida. That would be the end of the Trump campaign, no doubt.
So far, there hasn’t been many indications that Donald Trump and his allies need to be worried about losing Florida’s thirty electoral votes. All the indications are that the Republican Party has effectively made Florida safely red with Ron DeSantis’s popular administration making the state a GOP stronghold over the past few years. Republican voter registrations are through the roof when compared to pre-Ron DeSantis administration years.
The REPUBLICAN PARTY continues to EXPAND our voter registration lead by adding another 37,588 to our margin from September 1st – 30th. Thank you @ChrisMZiegler for your leadership! pic.twitter.com/hxTJFl2FCb
— Spencer Roach (@SpencerRoachFL) October 21, 2023
That being said, one signal should make the Trump campaign strategists keep an eye on the Sunshine State. At least one poll now suggests that, while the favor is still in Trump’s hands to carry Florida in November, the lead from Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in Florida may be within the margin of error or close to it.
New Poll Suggests Trump Is Losing Ground In Florida To Kamala Harris
A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining ground on former President Donald Trump in Florida, bringing the race within what the pollster calls “striking distance.” Conducted between August 7 and August 11, the survey of 500 likely voters shows Trump leading Harris by 5 percentage points, a much narrower gap compared to previous polls and far smaller than Governor Ron DeSantis’ 19-point landslide in the 2022 election.
According to the poll, Trump holds 47% of the vote, while Harris secures 42%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 5%, leaving 5% of voters undecided or unwilling to disclose their preferences. The poll’s margin of error stands at +/- 4.4%, highlighting the competitive nature of the race and reflecting the enthusiasm Harris has sparked among Democrats since her entry into the contest.
Florida, once a crucial swing state in presidential elections, has seen its battleground status wane in recent years. Trump won the state by 3.3 percentage points over President Joe Biden in 2020, and DeSantis’ commanding victory two years later further solidified Republican dominance. Moreover, Republicans now outnumber Democrats in voter registration by 1 million, posing a significant challenge for any Democratic candidate.
Despite these hurdles, the poll’s findings surprised David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, who noted that Harris’ position is stronger than anticipated. While the results do not spell disaster for Trump, Paleologos described the situation as a “caution sign,” suggesting that the race in Florida may not be as one-sided as some might expect.
“What was once an easy drive through the Sunshine State is now a drive with caution,” Paleologos remarked, acknowledging that although Harris remains the underdog, her closer-than-expected standing could signal a more competitive race ahead.
One important note about this poll (and any poll) is that when a lead is within the margin of error, that doesn’t mean the lead is moot. That doesn’t mean the poll is basically a tie. That’s not the way a margin of error works in statistics and surveying.
If someone has a lead of 5 points in a poll and the margin of error is 5 points, it simply means that it is technically possible that the poll has misrepresented reality by about 5 points. But that can go both ways. So in the case of this Florida poll, there could be a 4.5 point margin of error that goes against Harris and in the favor of Donald Trump. Yet, it is exceedingly rare for one side of the equation to win all of the margin of error.
Trump Has Many Paths To Victory, Kamala Has Far Fewer
The past three elections going back to 2016 have proven that the Presidential election has become a game of winning just a handful of swing states. So many states are so deeply blue and deeply red that there’s essentially no reason for Donald Trump to be campaigning in California or Washington state, for example.
If it’s assumed that Donald Trump will carry Texas and Florida as expected, then that opens up so many paths to victory for Donald Trump. Winning Pennsylvania would be a nightmare scenario for Kamala Harris and company. That would essentially clinch the victory for him. Even winning Michigan would be a disaster for the Democrats.
Kamala Harris is in the terrible and unenviable position of having to sweep Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for her clearest path to victory, emulating what Joe Biden did in 2020.
If the 2016 and 2020 elections taught us anything, anyone saying they know exactly how the swing states are going to fall are likely blowing smoke. Especially if they are a corporate media pollster.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
