The election is almost here. In some places, voting has already started early.
And now Donald Trump received a game-changing test result that he was never expecting.
Former President Donald Trump’s momentum heading into the 2024 election is nothing short of remarkable, as his chances of victory have surged while Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to gain any real traction.
According to the renowned pollster Nate Silver, Trump’s position in the race has improved significantly, with the data guru behind FiveThirtyEight now giving Trump a commanding 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College. Harris, by contrast, lags behind at just 41.6%.
“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver stated in his latest forecast, signaling a critical turning point in the race.
Trump’s rise has caught many off guard, particularly given Harris’s inability to spark enthusiasm.
Even worse for her, Silver notes that the odds of an Electoral College-popular vote split, which would benefit Trump, have shot up to nearly 18%.
Silver’s model shows Harris narrowly leading in the national popular vote at 58.9%, but that number is practically meaningless in the context of the Electoral College system — where Trump is predicted to rack up 274 votes, surpassing Harris’s 263.
The magic number to claim the presidency? 270, and Trump seems poised to do just that.
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what,” Silver observed on X, implying that the fleeting boost Harris received was more about timing than any real support for her policies or leadership.
Silver didn’t hold back on criticizing Harris’s strategy, pointing out potential missteps, including her decision to select Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate instead of a more strategic choice like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
“Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” Silver added, echoing the sentiment that Harris’s campaign is failing to gain steam.
To make matters worse for Harris, Silver suggested that her decision to bring back much of Biden’s old campaign team could prove fatal.
In his words: “I think I’d buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she hadn’t rehired so many of the Biden people.” It’s clear that Harris’s reliance on a recycled team hasn’t yielded the results she desperately needs.
Even though Silver calls the race a “toss-up,” Trump’s surge is impossible to ignore, particularly after an ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that Harris failed to gain the expected post-convention bump.
This leaves the race largely unchanged — which spells bad news for Harris as Trump gains steam.
In the critical battleground states, the race remains tight, with a CNN/SSRS survey showing Trump and Harris neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, each earning 47% support, and Harris barely edging out Trump in Georgia by a razor-thin margin of 48%-47%.
Despite these close numbers, Trump’s growing momentum and strong Electoral College prospects make him the candidate to watch as 2024 draws closer.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
