Democrats thought they had Trump dead to rights. Kamala would swoop in and save them.
But Donald Trump just scored an earth-shattering 2024 election win over Kamala Harris.
The 2024 election is almost certainly going to come down to the three states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The ceiling for Donald Trump is extremely high this election cycle, but his floor is super close to what he needs to secure 270 electoral votes. Kamala, meanwhile, has a ceiling that is just barely over the 270 electoral votes threshold. There’s virtually no path to victory for her without those three critical swing states.
What’s noteworthy about those three states is that they have a ton of independent and “politically-homeless” voters. That’s why there was so much shift in the voting behavior from the voters in those three states between 2016 and 2020. Whoever wants to win a presidential election right now in America needs to give a ton of attention to the rust belt as it’s totally in flux.
Trump Dominates Among Independents in Matchup Against Harris, New Poll Shows
Former President Donald Trump is leading significantly among independent voters in a head-to-head matchup against Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a poll released Thursday.
This poll comes in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. Last Sunday, Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed Harris in a letter posted on X (formerly Twitter), stating that while he initially intended to run for reelection, he believed it was in the best interest of the country and his party to focus on completing his current term.
In the Rasmussen Reports survey, which focused on independent voters, Trump holds a 20-point lead over Harris. The data shows Trump with 53% support, Harris with 33%, another candidate with 9%, and 4% of voters remaining undecided. The poll was conducted on July 22-23 and included 1,074 likely U.S. voters, with a margin of error of ±3%.
Independents Only-
Trump: 53% (+20)
Harris: 33%
Someone Else: 9%
Not Sure: 5%We have done more Harris polling than almost any pollster. So this is no surprise to us. And it’s consistent with our last Biden v Trump poll. She did not improve on Biden. https://t.co/QypzA6cQIu
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 25, 2024
Rasmussen Reports highlighted that the results were consistent with their previous polling. “We have done more Harris polling than almost any pollster. So this is no surprise to us. And it’s consistent with our last Biden vs. Trump poll. She did not improve on Biden,” Rasmussen noted in a post on X.
On a national scale, Rasmussen’s poll also indicates a substantial lead for Trump over Harris, with Trump securing 50% of voter support compared to Harris’ 43%. Another candidate received 4%, and 3% of voters remained undecided.
This surge in polling comes after Harris secured the necessary delegates to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee ahead of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August. Democratic lawmakers, political figures, and donors rallied behind Harris following Biden’s endorsement.
Biden’s endorsement and subsequent withdrawal follow widespread criticism of his debate performance against Trump, where he struggled with his statements and appeared to freeze mid-sentence. While Republicans have frequently highlighted Biden’s gaffes and questioned his mental fitness, it wasn’t until after the debate that concerns were raised by Democrats and major media outlets.
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted post-debate revealed that 72% of Americans now doubt Biden’s mental and cognitive health to serve in office, an increase of seven points from a similar survey in early June.
As the political landscape shifts, all eyes are on the upcoming Democratic National Convention and how the dynamics between Harris and Trump will evolve in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.
All but one poll of 15 different polls have Trump LEADING HARRIS BY AS MUCH AS 9 % Pts.
Yet many are making big deal of ONE POLL (Reuters) having Harris up by 2.
Below is a ranking MOST HISTORICAL ACCURATE POLLS…..Reuters does NOT EVEN MAKE THE top 20..REUTER NOT even LISTED pic.twitter.com/CmLdLs0BDF
— mark joseph (@markjos05095724) July 23, 2024
Kamala Harris Untested, Untrusted
The reality is that the American voters don’t have a connection with Kamala Harris for her to be a strong candidate for President. She’s never sniffed any success in a national election. She never won a single delegate in a Presidential election, whereas Donald Trump has a massive following.
Donald Trump will have the benefit of being able to tell American voters that he’s been here and he’s tested, whereas Kamala Harris is a political shapeshifter who is clearly out of her element and only where she is because of the absolute chaos of the Democrat Party today.
The Democrats are learning there’s consequences for the long-term if you ignore the serious consequences of picking candidates based on their race and gender rather than their records and their character and intelligence.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
