This is an election for the history books. We are at a crossroads.
And now the 2024 race is turned on its head after Kamala was hit with a devastating report.
New CNN polling Wednesday revealed Vice President Kamala Harris is floundering when it comes to winning over non-college-educated White men in key battleground states, a demographic that one analyst warned could signal “trouble” for her campaign.
“Harris has the advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has the advantage in Arizona, and then there’s the proof of just how close the race is 60-plus days out,” CNN host Kate Bolduan said, pointing to the razor-thin margins that define the 2024 contest.
In a breakdown of the numbers, CNN political director David Chalian highlighted the clear signs of weakness in Harris’s support base, particularly among White voters without college degrees—a group that remains loyal to Trump.
“If you look at the White voters without college degrees, this is a Trump base constituency, obviously. You see his huge numbers with this group, you see that this is a trouble sign for Harris,” Chalian admitted, offering a sobering reality for the Harris campaign. It’s a critical voting bloc that Harris appears to be losing by a wide margin.
Making matters worse, Harris is also underperforming among White college-educated voters in states like Georgia.
“She probably wants to make up some ground with White college-educated voters across these battlegrounds as well,” Chalian added, acknowledging yet another challenge for Harris as she scrambles to shore up support.
On the flip side, Chalian pointed out that Harris does enjoy overwhelming backing from Black voters.
“Eighty-six percent of Black voters in Michigan are with Harris, 11% with Trump,” Chalian said, with similarly high numbers in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
However, even here, Harris still falls short of the support Joe Biden received in 2020. In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden secured 92% of the Black vote, according to exit polls.
“There’s still room here for Harris to grow and consolidate the Black vote,” Chalian said, stressing how essential that support will be if she has any hope of winning battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The fact that she hasn’t yet locked down the full Black vote should be concerning for her campaign.
Then there’s the glaring gender gap in the polls. While Harris holds a double-digit lead among female voters in states like Wisconsin and Michigan, it’s a much tighter race in Arizona. But the real “flip side,” as Chalian put it, lies with male voters, who overwhelmingly back Trump.
“Trump’s advantage, very significant with male voters,” Chalian emphasized.
In Nevada, Trump leads by 18 points among men, and by 15 points in Pennsylvania.
The gender gap is stark, and Trump’s dominance among male voters poses a serious hurdle for Harris, whose campaign has struggled to connect with this demographic.
Ultimately, as CNN’s Bolduan concluded, this polling serves as “an important gut check for both campaigns.”
With just over two months to go, Harris is facing an uphill battle, especially as Trump solidifies his hold on key voter groups and battleground states where every vote counts.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
