Election integrity has been a major talking point. Everyone’s concerned about election rigging.
And now this one high court decision has completely flipped the 2024 election upside down.
Some Republicans in the House may lose their seats in the 2024 election as a result of a recent ruling by the New York Court of Appeals; however, opinions among experts are mixed on whether or not this will cause the Republicans to lose their majority.
There were several voters who were unhappy with the state’s congressional maps, which were made by a court-appointed special master in 2022 and helped Republicans win five seats in the House and give them a five-seat majority. On Tuesday, the court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in Hoffmann v. New York State Independent Redistricting Commission.
New district borders may contain more precincts leaning toward the Democrat party, which might cause all Republican incumbents to lose their reelection bids. The commission is ordered by the court to rewrite the state’s maps, and the Democrat-controlled legislature must give its approval.
“The Democrats, you know, they have a lot more to gain by trying to make it where the legislature redraws the new maps,” said Shawn Donahue, an assistant professor of politics at the University of Buffalo.
“The long and the short of it is Democrats hold super majorities in both chambers of the legislature and, you know…the commission is only technically advisory, it’s the legislature that ultimately makes the decision now.”
The court invalidated state-enacted gerrymandering maps in the 2022 case Harkenrider v. Hochul. Prior to that, a bipartisan commission had been unable to reach a consensus on the proposed maps, with every Democrat voting in favor and all Republicans opposed.
Democrats control both houses of the legislature and will have the power to approve or reject the commission’s designs.
“The question would be is how far Democrats want to try to push any advantage,” Donahue said. “When they drew their map last time, it was designed to have 22 Democrats and four Republicans. We don’t know if they’ll maybe try to go that aggressive…the seat that’s kind of questionable, that I think where Democrats would try to change the lines substantially, would be the Staten Island-based 11th district with Nicole Malliotakis.”
Malliotakis is a two-term congressman from a very conservative area of New York City — Staten Island — where many people work for the police and fire departments. By a margin of more than 23 percentage points, she defeated her predecessor, Max Rose, and was re-elected in 2022.
D’Esposito and his fellow Republicans from New York sponsored a resolution that led to George Santos’ expulsion from the House on December 1. Ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi, the Democratic candidate, is currently ahead in the polls for the special election that will be conducted on February 13, 2024, in his affluent New York congressional district that includes portions of Nassau County and Queens.
Republicans may not be in danger as a result of the revisions, according to some. New York candidates’ political consultant Vice Casale believes that district realignments hinder the process.
“The Democrats cannot simply redistrict New York Republicans into oblivion,” Casale stated in a letter to the publication. “There are still too many seats where they can only make so many changes before it starts to affect other districts. For example, making Congressman Williams’ district bluer to take the seat back and then making Congressman Pat Ryan’s district bluer to help protect him will only help Congressman Molinaro by giving him a redder district.”
Even while redistricting is a real possibility, Casale said that Lawler, who is facing a challenge from his former Democratic colleague Mondaire Jones, has a good chance of keeping his seat. He made the following statement about New York Democrats: “There still appears to be a complete misunderstanding of Rockland County politics and underestimating of the Congressman’s popularity.”
The decision in Hoffmann cannot be reviewed by the United States Supreme Court since it involves a political question pertaining to state law.
The Democrats, according to Casale, “thought they did a pretty good job two years ago but did a pretty crappy job,” so any gains in seats would be a surprise. “Getting a second chance doesn’t mean they will get it right.”
Legislators who might be impacted have responded negatively. “While I disagree with the decision to jettison NY’s current congressional map, I urge those drawing the new map to make the new districts compact & competitive. Doing so ensures the 2024 election is about important policies, rather than predetermined partisan outcomes,” wrote LaLota in an email shared with the media.
“There’s nothing fair about this,” LaLota penned.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
