The Presidential election is now underway. It’s not good news for Kamala Harris.
As Trump just jumped out to a critical early lead over Kamala Harris in 2024 voting.
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, recent vote-by-mail data from Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania reveal a significant shift in voter behavior. According to data from Decision Desk HQ, the substantial advantage that Democrats held in vote-by-mail requests during the 2020 election has narrowed dramatically. This trend could signal a positive development for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, shared his optimism with Fox News Digital. “It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady said.
The data shows that Democrats’ lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina, and more than 35% in Pennsylvania. This narrowing gap suggests a shift in voter habits that could play a decisive role in the upcoming election.
Keady emphasized the strategic advantage of getting voters to cast their ballots early, whether by mail or through early in-person voting. “Getting voters out to early in-person voting or to vote by mail can free up resources for campaigns,” he noted. By securing early votes, campaigns can redirect their focus to reaching lower propensity voters, who are often crucial in deciding election outcomes.
“I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, about getting mail, about getting robocalls to go vote,” Keady said. He added that once a voter casts their ballot, these outreach efforts stop, allowing campaigns to shift their attention to other voters.
This strategy could prove critical in battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where elections are expected to be closely contested. Recent polling from Real Clear Politics shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading by less than a point in Pennsylvania, while Trump holds a narrow lead in North Carolina. With such tight margins, mobilizing voters early may determine the final outcome.
The Democratic edge in early and mail-in voting played a significant role in the 2020 election. However, Keady sees signs that Republicans are gaining momentum in this area. “It definitely signals that A, there’s turnout… but B, also that the base has adopted, kind of being able to accept that early voting is a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” he said.
By embracing early voting, Keady believes Republicans can level the playing field in an area where they were at a disadvantage in 2020. “As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballot, to do these things that we know are safe and secure, to get people out to the polls,” Keady concluded, acknowledging that Democrats have long been proficient in these methods.
Donald Trump has, himself, embraced legal, early voting this cycle, a contrast to his comments about early voting from four years ago. Today, Donald Trump and his campaign allies are much more vocal about promoting supporters to vote early whenever possible.
Early Voting in Pennsylvania. GO VOTE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! DJT
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 17, 2024
The new RNC co-chair, Lara Trump, has also made mail-in voting and early voting a major part of her plans for the Republican Party this election cycle, though she still promotes tightening election security through Voter ID laws and trained poll watchers.
Lara Trump lays out her promises if she’s elected co-chair of the RNC
– “Out of control” voter registration
– Legal ballot harvesting
– Trained poll watchers
– Huge early voting pushThis is the way 🔥 pic.twitter.com/BrutUlzZly
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) February 21, 2024
It All Comes Down To Turnout
As we saw in 2016 and 2020, the election truly just comes down to whoever is able to draw out more of their base to vote. That’s why Donald Trump was able to win in 2016, and why he got close in 2020.
The polls said he was dead in the water in the weeks leading up to election day, but he overcame those polls with massive turnout of his support base. Whether that’s enough this time around will be the question looming for the next several weeks until we have a declared winner.
As of now, Donald Trump is “behind” in the national polling. Though it’s important to note that he’s nowhere near as far “behind” as he was in 2016 and in 2020. So, if anything, Donald Trump is performing way better than he ever has in any election. That should concern Kamala Harris considering he already won once and nearly won the second time.
Some believe he did win in 2020, but the Big Tech overlords don’t like that opinion very much.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
