A storm is brewing for Trump. There’s no more running from it for him.
That’s why Trump’s reportedly deeply troubled by this one issue that threatens to undo him.
What you may have missed over the weekend was an interesting development between the United States and her ally in Italy. The Italian federal authorities decided to disregard the United States’ request for the extradition of an Iranian citizen who was implicated by the U.S. Department of Justice for a drone attack over in the Middle East in Jordan that took the lives of three Americans. Instead, the individual was let free to return to Iran.
The Italian authorities argued that “only crimes that are punishable according to the laws of both sides can lead to extradition, a condition which, based on the state of documents, can’t be considered as existing.” Effectively, they are saying that the individual may have violated U.S. law, but even though Italy is an ally of the United States, they can’t say that the individual violated Italian law and therefore had to be released rather than extradited.
Iran's Judiciary Media Center announced that Iranian citizen Mohammad Abedini, who was detained in Italy at the request of the United States, will return to Iran in a few hours. pic.twitter.com/nuIbMCabBn
— IranView 24 (@IranView24) January 12, 2025
This, in a vacuum, is not that big of a development. Rather, it’s another development of an issue that is going to become too big for Donald Trump to ignore. That issue is the state of Iran and its ongoing terrorist activity throughout the Middle East, both directly and indirectly through its terrorist proxy organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran does not feel deterred in the slightest, even with Donald Trump heading back to the White House for another four years.
Donald Trump And The Balance Between Keeping The Peace And Making The Peace
Donald Trump is insistent that he wants to keep the peace globally. He’s argued that the chaos that has set-in in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe is a result of Joe Biden’s poor leadership and weak persona that he gives off when compared to the stronger presence Donald Trump had in the foreign policy driver’s seat during his first term in office. That may be so, and many foreign policy experts can’t deny that Donald Trump being in the Oval Office forced international actors to play more carefully.
Regardless, now that he’s taking office once more, Trump will have to come to grips with an Iranian regime that doesn’t appear to be taking any orders whatsoever. Donald Trump has recently called for the release of all the hostages taken by Hamas radical terrorists on the tragic day of October 7th, 2023, of which both Israeli and U.S. citizens fell victim to. He demanded that they be released by his inauguration day or there would be “hell to pay.”
As of the time of writing, there’s been no movement. Hamas has not been willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with their Israeli counterparts and there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Some reporters seem to believe that there may not even be many survivors left who were taken hostage that day, given that Hamas has a history of starving and beating their hostages nearly to death. Their situation is dire, at the very least.
Iran has a hand in that. They have had a hand in the Hamas and Hezbollah attacks against Israel over the past year, and if Iran wanted the U.S. and Israeli hostages to be let go, that would happen in a heartbeat. The problem is, they don’t appear to want that at all. The clock is ticking and the window is closing for Iran and their terrorist proxies to return the hostages before Donald Trump is inaugurated and it’s his turn to take the wheel on foreign policy for the U.S. once more.
This is the heart of the issue for Donald Trump. Let’s say in just days from now that Iran and its terrorist proxies have not return the hostages. He said there would be “hell to pay” for not doing so. What will he do? Will Donald Trump be forced to escalate relations with Iran? Some more hawkish conservatives in his advisory circle say we are well past that point and that Iran needs to pay for their crimes over the past decade plus.
Trump says what he meant by saying there will be 'h*ll to pay' in the Middle East if the hostages aren't released.
"Exactly what it says […] There will be h*ll to pay. It won't be the word 'don't.'"
— 🇺🇸 Pismo 🇺🇸 (@Pismo_B) January 6, 2025
Those in Donald Trump’s ear who might lean more libertarian or isolationist seem to be fearful of the idea of escalating relations with Iran considering the way China and Russia has been clearly cozying up to the terrorist regime in Tehran. Surely, no one wants war and this side of the equation is desperate to keep the U.S. from engaging in another costly war like the US-Iraq war that so many Americans look back on with salt in their mouths.
These are two valid perspectives. Which one will win out? Nobody knows right now. It’s not clear what Donald Trump is feeling behind closed doors. On the one hand, he’s signaling that he is not playing games with Iran with his “hell to pay” comments. On the other hand, he keeps saying that his second administration will bring peace to Europe and the Middle East in a matter of months after his inauguration day.
In either case, this issue is the one issue that could leave a stain on Donald Trump’s legacy forever if he does not play his cards right. It’s quite easy to see how this could get out of hand fast with one wrong move, plunging the United States into a state of war unlike anything the U.S. has seen since the Vietnam war effort.
Is it possible that Iran could call up their new Russian and Chinese buddies if the U.S. put its boot on the neck of the Iranian radical regime? Absolutely, that’s what makes this such a delicate issue. The last thing anyone wants, including Donald Trump, is to start a hot fight between the U.S. and its allies and the new unholy alliance between Iran, China, and Russia. That’s the worst case scenario right now, even though it’s not as unlikely as it was during Donald Trump’s first term. This is all not even mentioning North Korea, which is a bit of an unknown quantity.
Certainly, Joe Biden helped create some of this mess. It’s up to Donald Trump now, though, to turn this ship around to make it head back to more peaceable waters. Can he do it without any escalation? Maybe not. That train may have left the station on October 7th when the closest legal ally to the United States was attacked by an Iranian terrorist proxy in Hamas. Again, U.S. citizens were k*lled in cold blood and taken hostage as well. That’s not something anyone can turn a blind eye to.
If there is a chance that train hasn’t left the station, it’s up to Donald Trump to make sure he threads that needle. What’s the balance between pressuring Iranian (as well as Chinese and Russian) authorities with real consequences and just plain posturing with diplomacy? That’s a tough question to answer but one that will be an important one when it comes to Donald Trump’s legacy twenty or thirty years from now.
'Ready for Big War'…Iran Arms Nuclear Sites
US Warship ‘Flees Post-9-Hr’ Houthi Strike, Iran Makes Nuclear Sites ‘Attack-Proof’, To Add 1,000…
On January 12, Iran expanded military drills to include two nuclear sites, Fordo and Khondab, in addition to the Natanz facility.… pic.twitter.com/0X7vWaqO4e
— Point Blank News (@_pblanknews) January 12, 2025
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