President Trump has been implementing his agenda at light-speed. But that might come to an end.
Because a former Trump ally just warned the President about a devastating storm brewing.
GOP Faces Turnout Trouble For 2026 and 2028
The Republican Party is staring down a potential crisis, and former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer isn’t mincing words about it. Just five months after President Donald Trump clinched a narrow victory in Wisconsin during the 2024 presidential election, the GOP took a bruising in a key state Supreme Court race—a loss that’s sending shockwaves through party ranks. Spicer, speaking on the 2Way platform Wednesday, called the drop-off in Republican turnout when Trump’s name isn’t on the ballot a “huge problem” that could spell disaster for the party’s future.
In Wisconsin, liberal Susan Crawford walloped conservative Brad Schimel by roughly 10 percentage points in a special election to fill an open seat on the state’s Supreme Court. The win came on the heels of Trump’s 2024 triumph in the Badger State, where he edged out his opponent by a slim 29,000 votes. But without the former president’s star power driving voters to the polls, the numbers tell a stark story. “It’s a special election, it’s off season right but that’s still not bad you’re, you’re about down 300 and plus, the Republicans who had gotten 1.6 with Donald Trump leading the ticket went down to 1.05. That’s a huge problem […] that’s the turnout, the motivation problem,” Spicer said.
The plunge from 1.6 million votes with Trump at the helm to just over a million for Schimel has party strategists scrambling to figure out what went wrong. Spicer didn’t hold back in dissecting the defeat. “What is driving that? Are they pissed off? Are they pissed off at Donald Trump? Are they pissed off at their, you know, what’s going on Wisconsin, or are they not motivated?” he asked. “Did they only turn out because of Donald Trump? Did they only want to see him? And I think that understanding that delta is critical to the midterms because you need to understand, are you facing a motivation or a mechanical problem? And nowhere better than with Wisconsin did that show up.”
Wisconsin’s result isn’t just a one-off embarrassment—it’s a flashing red warning light for Republicans as they gear up for the 2026 midterms. Trump’s outsized influence has long been a double-edged sword for the GOP. His ability to rally the base turned states like Wisconsin red in 2024, flipping a battleground that had gone for Joe Biden in 2020. But the former president’s absence from the ticket seems to leave a void that other Republican candidates struggle to fill. Political analysts point to a growing dependency on Trump’s cult of personality, a dynamic that could leave the party vulnerable when he’s not around to whip up the crowds.
Contrast that with Florida, where the GOP flexed its muscle in two special elections to replace congressional seats vacated by Trump appointees. Republican State Sen. Randy Fine cruised to a 14-point victory over Democrat Josh Weil in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, stepping in for Rep. Michael Waltz, who now serves as Trump’s national security advisor. Meanwhile, former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis steamrolled Democrat Gay Valimont by 14.8 points in the 1st District, a seat left open after Matt Gaetz—Trump’s short-lived pick for Attorney General—withdrew from consideration amid controversy. Both races showed Republicans holding strong in a state where Trump’s influence remains ironclad.
Yet even in Florida’s success, Spicer sees cracks in the foundation. “The problem with the Republicans… both parties attritted from 2024, which is, again, it’s a general election,” he told hosts Mark Halperin and Dan Turrentine. “You guys did a better job of getting your folks motivated out there.” The implication? Democrats, despite their own turnout dips, managed to keep their base engaged enough to make Wisconsin competitive, while Republicans floundered without Trump’s gravitational pull.
The stakes couldn’t be higher as the GOP looks ahead. Midterm elections historically favor the party out of power, but if Republicans can’t fire up their voters without Trump headlining the show, they risk squandering that advantage. In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court loss could have ripple effects, tilting the bench leftward and influencing rulings on everything from voting laws to abortion rights—issues that could further alienate or energize the GOP base depending on how the party responds.
Spicer’s diagnosis points to a deeper identity crisis for Republicans. Are they a party built on Trump’s charisma alone, or can they forge a path forward with a new generation of leaders? The numbers suggest a troubling reliance on the former president, whose larger-than-life presence has reshaped the GOP over the past decade. As the 2026 midterms loom, the party will need to crack the code on motivating its voters—or risk watching Democrats capitalize on their malaise. For now, Wisconsin stands as a sobering lesson: Trump may be the GOP’s golden ticket, but when he’s not on the ballot, the shine wears off fast.
Trump And GOP Stave Off Disaster With Key Florida Special Election Wins
Republican candidates swept a pair of special congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday, according to NBC News projections. The wins pad the GOP’s slim House majority, offering a touch of relief as they steer through choppy political waters.
NBC News forecasts that Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis has clinched the 1st District seat, stepping into the shoes of former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz. Meanwhile, Republican state Sen. Randy Fine nabbed the 6th District race, succeeding taking over from ex-Rep. Michael Waltz, who now serves as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser.
With 73% of the expected vote tallied, Fine led Democrat Josh Weil 54% to 46% when the NBC News Decision Desk declared him the winner. Yet, in three counties where nearly all votes are counted, Fine trailed Waltz’s November performance by about 10 points. Patronis, on the other hand, bested Democrat Gay Valimont—a former Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America activist who fell to Gaetz in the last election—securing a decisive triumph.
The 6th District contest had some Republicans sweating bullets. Weil outpaced Fine in fundraising by a landslide and the state senator lagged in rolling out TV ads. Trump had dominated the district, home to Daytona Beach, by a whopping 30 points in November. But as the race tightened, outside GOP groups swooped in with last-minute airwave blitzes. Trump himself jumped into the fray, firing off multiple Truth Social posts and hosting two tele-town halls last week to rally his base for both Patronis and Fine.
Democrats, sensing an opening, banked on lower special-election turnout and fired-up grassroots energy to challenge Trump’s influence. Their hopes, however, didn’t pan out.
Fine, a die-hard Trump loyalist, had flipped his 2024 presidential primary endorsement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—his home-state pick—to Trump. In an op-ed, Fine, a Jewish Republican, argued that DeSantis hadn’t done enough to fight antisemitism. DeSantis once held the 6th District seat before his gubernatorial run. Fine’s switch paid off: Trump’s backing in the January special primary propelled him to a smooth GOP nomination win, and he leaned hard into that alliance during the campaign.
Patronis’s victory over Valimont in the 1st District was less of a nail-biter, cementing the GOP’s grip on a seat Gaetz had long controlled. With these wins, Republicans gain a smidge more wiggle room in the House, where their majority hangs by a thread. For now, the Sunshine State remains a bright spot for the party—and a testament to Trump’s enduring pull.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
