The entire election just changed. The Democrat Party has been caught off guard.
Because Trump just scored a jaw-dropping early election win that has Kamala furious.
The Democrats are hoping that all their “likely Democrat” states are going to ring true for them in November because they have zero room for error. Kamala Harris has her back against the wall and the polls are simply not looking good for her. Donald Trump is in the best position to win the swing states than at any point in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
If Kamala Harris were to win the three “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, then she could have a strong path to victory. Donald Trump would effectively be stuck trying to flip a state that was previously expected to be a deep blue state. The problem for Harris and company is that he just might be poised to do that based on new reports.
Without Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Donald Trump could land at 268 electoral votes by carrying the Sun Belt states as he’s currently expected to. Just two votes shy of a win. Those two votes just might be coming from an unexpected place. That is New Hampshire.
As the race for the White House intensifies, former President Donald Trump appears to be gaining momentum, according to a recent New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released on Sunday night. The poll indicates that Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the Granite State, with a result of 50.2 to 49.8 percent.
While this margin is slim and within the poll’s margin of error, the implications are noteworthy given that Trump has lost New Hampshire in the past two elections and Democrats have won the state in seven of the last eight presidential races.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Praecones Analytica / @NewHampJournal poll:Trump 50.2% (+0.4)
Harris 49.8%622 RV, 10/24-26
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2024
Conducted between October 24-26 among 622 registered voters, the poll suggests that Trump’s campaign is broadening its strategy in the final days leading up to the election. Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s national campaign spokesperson and a native of Atkinson, New Hampshire, commented, “There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory.” Leavitt urged Granite Staters to support Trump, framing Harris as a “radical liberal” who would undermine the state and the nation.
In the gubernatorial race, former Senator Kelly Ayotte maintains a modest lead over Democrat Joyce Craig, with the NHJournal poll showing Ayotte ahead at 52 to 48 percent. This reflects a similar trend seen in an Emerson College poll released the previous week, where both Trump and Ayotte were neck-and-neck with their opponents, staying within the margin of error.
Trump’s close polling with Harris is fueling narratives of a campaign gaining momentum as Election Day approaches. His team believes this newfound energy is enabling them to expand the electoral map. In the final days of the campaign, Trump is scheduled to appear in New Mexico and Virginia, indicating a strategic outreach beyond traditional battlegrounds.
Former Trump spokesman Sean Spicer noted the changing dynamics of the race, suggesting that states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and potentially Nebraska’s Second Congressional District have become competitive in ways not previously anticipated. “Look at the data,” Spicer stated. “They are all trending in Trump’s direction.”
In terms of broader voter sentiment, Granite Staters were divided on generic ballot questions, with 52 percent preferring Republican control of Congress. However, a slight majority (50.6 to 49.4 percent) expressed a desire for Democrats to maintain control of the state legislature.
When examining the governor’s race more closely, Ayotte, who has emphasized continuing “the Sununu way” and is endorsed by popular GOP Governor Chris Sununu, faced a preference for change among voters. In a question about whether to “stay on the Sununu course” or seek “change,” 55 percent of respondents favored change.
Governor Sununu weighed in on the poll results, asserting that they reflect national trends. He remarked, “Harris reinforced her supporters’ worst fears when she confirmed she wouldn’t provide any change from the current administration. Trump now controls the narrative as the only alternative to America’s current situation. And that’s a powerful message for voters in the final week of the campaign.”
With the election less than two weeks away, these polling trends could significantly influence the outcomes in both the presidential and gubernatorial races in New Hampshire.
To be sure, it’s unlikely Donald Trump would win New Hampshire. That said, if it’s even remotely close, he’s likely going to perform very well in the swing states that Democrats are banking on like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It’s simply unlikely that Trump would win New Hampshire and lose the other swing states.
A common theme pollsters and political analysts are seeing in this race is that Kamala Harris simply doesn’t have the same connection with the east coast swing state voters that Joe Biden did. This is why she’s facing a mountain with no walking stick in states like Pennsylvania, at least comapred to Joe Biden in 2020.
Trump lost New Hampshire by 59K votes. Republicans flipped registration by about 54K. All it would take is a small shift from Biden to Trump and he can win this state. https://t.co/6KTNAAPtl9 pic.twitter.com/KvinRc2zAf
— Dan Cotter (@TheDanCotter) October 25, 2024
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
