President Biden’s being put into a trap by Donald Trump. He’s not even aware of it.
Because Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton have a serious problem from 2016 that they never could’ve seen coming.
Is the Joe Biden campaign trusting the mistakes of the political media elites who are making a critical mistake they made back in 2016?
Back in 2016, the prevailing narrative in political media painted Donald Trump as a floundering underdog leading a fractured party, while Hillary Clinton stood as the establishment-backed juggernaut. Despite Bernie Sanders’ notable primary showing, Clinton was seen as the known evil, supported by an entrenched network of political elites spanning generations. This narrative, embraced by most analysts, downplayed Trump’s appeal and dismissed his enthusiastic blue-collar supporters as outliers.
Rather than scrutinizing Clinton’s questionable campaign strategies, such as neglecting key states, the media marveled at her supposed technological prowess. Even as signs pointed to a tighter race than anticipated, the press remained fixated on the preconceived notion of Trump’s inevitable defeat.
The shock of Trump’s victory reverberated through the political landscape, highlighting the media’s failure to heed warning signs.
Fast forward to today, and a familiar pattern emerges. Coverage now centers on Biden’s financial advantage and perceived strength, downplaying any signs of vulnerability. Op-eds urging Biden to step down have vanished, replaced by meticulous analyses of his campaign’s staffing and financial resources. But amidst this optimism lies a blind spot reminiscent of 2016: a refusal to acknowledge potential weaknesses in Biden’s camp.
Polling data, for instance, indicates a tighter race than media narratives suggest, with Trump maintaining a slim lead in some polls. Yet, this reality seems overshadowed by assumptions of Biden’s inevitable ascendance. The media’s selective reporting, favoring Biden’s fundraising successes while downplaying Trump’s, further skews the narrative.
Similarly, the media’s focus on divisions within the Republican Party overlooks signs of discontent among Biden supporters, such as their reluctance to engage in grassroots efforts. Biden’s sparse public appearances are rationalized as strategic, mirroring the excuses made for Clinton’s avoidance of large-scale events in 2016. Yet, the contrast with Trump’s unimpeded forays into traditionally Democratic territories raises pertinent questions about Biden’s appeal.
While Trump garners genuine enthusiasm during impromptu visits, Biden’s attempts to replicate this retail politicking fall flat, revealing a stark enthusiasm gap. The media’s reluctance to explore these discrepancies reflects a narrative bias that could once again lead to unforeseen outcomes.
A tale of 2 campaigns:
Trump stopped at a Chick-Fil-A
Biden stopped at a Wawa
Trump bought 30 milkshakes and food for other people
Biden bought a milkshake for himself
Trump had a GAINT crowd
Biden had no crowd
Trump was genuine and authentic
Biden was scripted and… pic.twitter.com/hbmC0fnr6b
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 19, 2024
In the echo chamber of political media, dissenting voices are drowned out by the certainty of prevailing narratives. Just as in 2016, this reluctance to challenge assumptions risks shaping the election’s outcome. While the Biden camp may embrace the media’s optimism, Trump’s team, cognizant of the dangers of complacency, will scrutinize the narrative for vulnerabilities.
So far, Donald Trump’s messaging for his campaign has been successful as he’s been pulling out ahead of his competition in all the major polls thus far, including early national popular vote surveys.
Most surveys have Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by small margins, to be sure, but political survey experts have noted that Donald Trump never led in the national popular vote surveys at any point in 2016 or 2020. In 2016, of course, Donald Trump scored his major win against Hillary Clinton. And in 2020, he barely fell short as it was one of the most tightly contested races in the electoral college, right up there with the 2000 presidential election.
The swing has been so significant that there’s reports from some outlets suggesting that it’s entirely possible that Donald Trump could flip deep blue states like Minnesota, which hasn’t voted red in the presidential election in fifty years.
States like Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada will decide the 2024 election.
President Trump won most of these states in 2016 and can win them all in 2024. pic.twitter.com/6S4APAmq85
— Mercedes Schlapp (@mercedesschlapp) April 11, 2024
In Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden carried a nearly 2% advantage over Donald Trump in 2020, Trump carries a 2 to 3 point advantage himself this go around. That’s upwards of a five point swing in just a few short years. Winning Pennsylvania would be a serious blow to Joe Biden and the Democrats.
Joe Biden and his advisors are saying that they believe as they get closer to the November election that his “moderate” tone for politics will do its work and ensure he wins the moderate voters once again. That’s a serious gamble, though.
Whereas Hillary Clinton and her advisors outright ignored the possibility of Donald Trump resonating with the undecided voters who felt disenfranchised by the political elites, Joe Biden seems to be ignoring them just for the time being. However, if Joe Biden expects to ramp up his messaging closer to the election, it might already be too late for him if Donald Trump has convinced these crucial voters to back him at the ballot box.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
