U.S. Senators deliver Kamala Harris the worst news of her campaign so far

The Harris campaign believes they are far ahead of Trump. That’s not what Washington, D.C. believes.

Because U.S. Senators just delivered Kamala Harris the worst news of her campaign so far.

So the polls would have you believe that Kamala Harris is in the driver’s seat of this Presidential election against former President Donald Trump. The RealClearPolling average in the race between Harris and Trump has Harris up about 2.2 points. Her campaign is boasting that her fundraising numbers, which have been robust and strong, are an indicator that Americans are going to overwhelmingly choose her over Mr. 45 in just a month and change from now.

Is that the case, though? Is she really far ahead of Donald Trump? Well, it depends on who you ask, of course. One thing to consider, though, is that her own top allies in the U.S. Senate are extremely skeptical that she’s in the driver’s seat right now. Not only that, but some are voicing concerns that she doesn’t have the voting base that she thinks she does. Whereas Donald Trump, on the other hand, has a proven coalition of tens of millions of supporters.

One Democrat U.S. Senator, John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, has said that he believes Donald Trump is going to be “tough” to beat in Pennsylvania, the most important state in the entire race. Why? Well Donald Trump proved in 2016 and 2020 that he is liable to overperform expectations come election day.

“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” U.S. Senator Fetterman (D-PA) shared with reporters with The Hill recently.

Democrat U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock has shared that he believes this will be a close election no matter what, contradicting the overconfidence of some Harris allies closer to her campaign itself.

“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” Mr. Warnock from Georgia has shared with reporters.

Even more interesting is that there was one high-profile Democrat in the U.S. Senate who asked to remain anonymous when providing a statement that they are seriously worried about the bottom falling out of the Harris campaign when election day arrives. Mostly due to the fact that Donald Trump has demonstrated how much better he does on election day than the “expert” pollsters suggest.

“That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing,” the anonymous U.S. Senate Democrat said about the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

A different U.S. Senate Democrat who asked to remain anonymous when speaking with The Hill said that they don’t believe “any poll right now means much of anything,” another contradiction to the boasting of the Harris campaign that they are far ahead of Trump in the polling data.

Interestingly, a recent poll from the critical swing state of Pennsylvania conducted by NYT/Sienna showed Kamala Harris up four points over Donald Trump, leading the way to win those massive 19 electoral votes. However, what’s important to note is if you were to dig into the poll data, you would find that only 37% of the poll respondents indicated they voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Why is this significant? Well, Donald Trump carried 48.8% of the vote in 2020. So they mathematically must have overrepresented Democrat voters/2020 Biden voters when they calculated their four point Kamala Harris lead.

“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for somebody if you think they’re going to lose? And they’re trying to drive down fundraising and donations,” said one Republican pollster, claiming that there’s a concerted effort to discourage Trump supporters.

Other infamously anti-Trump polling firms are even showing that Donald Trump is ahead in most of the key swing states, including an advantage in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This would effectively clinch a victory for Trump in November.

NEW: Emerson College/The Hill poll finds Trump with edge in most swing states, but race remains tight

GA:
Trump 50
Harris 47

AZ:
Trump 49
Harris 48

WI:
Trump 49
Harris 48

PA:
Trump 48
Harris 47

NV:
Trump 48
Harris 48

NC
Trump 49
Harris 48

MI
Trump 47
Harris 49

9/15-9/18

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) September 23, 2024

The State of The 2024 Presidential Election Race

The race is likely to be close when all the dust settles. The political division in America has produced elections that are very rarely won in resounding fashion, especially when it comes to the most important offices like U.S. Senate and the Oval Office.

Though if anyone should be worried, it should be Vice President Kamala Harris. She’s far behind where Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were in their own race against Donald Trump four and eight years ago respectively. A lot can change, yes, but the fact remains that Donald Trump has proven to be a dominant force who can drive out voters on election day and prove the “experts” wrong.

Will that happen again? Maybe so, maybe not. It’s hard to imagine these “experts” figuring out how to not underpredict Donald Trump by three to seven points when they did twice already in 2016 and 2020. That’s what this race will come down to, given how razor thin the polling is right now.

Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.