Joe Biden thought his re-election campaign was on track. But now it’s crumbling down.
And President Biden is saying goodbye to his top supporters.
President Joe Biden faces declining approval among key demographics that supported his 2020 White House bid against former President Donald Trump, according to a Tuesday poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
The survey, which included likely and registered voters, revealed disapproval among majorities of women, those aged 18 to 29, independents, and Hispanics. These groups had previously voted for Biden over Trump by double digits in the 2020 election, as per Edison Research’s exit polls.
In the 2020 exit polls, Biden had a lead of 24 points among those aged 18 to 29, 15 points among females, 33 points among Hispanics, and 13 points among independents.
However, the recent NYT/Siena College survey among registered voters showed that 55% of women, 67% of 18-to-29-year-olds, 56% of Hispanics, and 60% of independents disapprove of Biden’s handling of the country. Slightly higher approval ratings were reported among likely female, Hispanic, and independent voters.
Furthermore, the poll highlighted disapproval among 25% of likely and 30% of registered black voters regarding Biden’s job performance. In 2020, this demographic had strongly supported Biden at 87% to 12%, according to exit polls.
Overall, Biden received approval ratings of 39% and 37% from likely and registered voters, respectively.
This places him in a precarious position, as the last incumbent president with similar low approval ratings in the year before reelection was Democrat Jimmy Carter at 40%, who went on to lose to Republican Ronald Reagan by almost 10 points.
The survey also revealed Biden trailing Trump among registered 18-to-29-year-old voters, with Trump leading 49% to 43%.
This decline in support comes amid dissatisfaction among this demographic regarding the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war after the terrorist group’s attack on the U.S. ally on October 7.
Recent polls have consistently shown Biden losing support from key voting blocs traditionally won by Democrats. Additionally, he lags behind Trump in hypothetical 2024 rematch scenarios in both national and crucial battleground state surveys.
Trump currently leads Biden by 3 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) national average and holds an advantage in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The NYT/Siena College survey, conducted from December 10 to December 14 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%, adds to the growing challenges for President Biden as he navigates public opinion dynamics.
If Joe Biden continues to lose support from younger voters and minority groups, it could have significant implications for the 2024 election.
Younger voters and minority groups, particularly Hispanics and black voters, have been crucial components of the Democratic Party’s coalition. If Biden loses support from these demographics, it weakens the foundation of his electoral base. Democrats rely on high turnout and strong support from these groups to secure electoral victories.
The loss of support from minority groups could impact Democratic chances in competitive House and Senate races. Many battleground districts have diverse populations, and Democrats need strong support from minority communities to secure victories in these areas.
Furthermore, if dissatisfaction grows among younger voters and minority groups, there’s a possibility that some voters may turn to third-party or independent candidates. This could further fragment the electorate and make it harder for Biden to secure a majority in key states.
The more Joe Biden bleeds support from the core Democrat voting base, the more of a problem it will become for Joe Biden and company.
It’s not just his campaign either. With Joe Biden at the top of everyone’s ballots, it’s entirely possible the Democrat voting base’s lack of enthusiasm translates to major losses for the donkey party and major wins for the Republicans.
Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.
