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Trump and Harris in Tight Race for Wisconsin Votes In Worrying Sign For Democrats

As the election approaches, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll reveals a tight race in Wisconsin between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll, conducted from October 20 to 23 among 500 likely voters, shows Trump narrowly leading Harris by 48% to 47%. This result falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, indicating a competitive landscape just days before Election Day.

In the key area of Door County, known as a bellwether for the state, Harris holds a slight advantage over Trump, leading 50% to 47% among 300 likely voters surveyed. Here, the margin of error is 5.7 percentage points, further emphasizing the tightness of the race.

Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes, is a crucial battleground state that both candidates are keenly eyeing to bolster their chances for the presidency. Historically, the state has been part of the “Blue Wall,” which includes Michigan and Pennsylvania—states that traditionally leaned Democratic. However, Trump successfully flipped all three in 2016, while Biden reclaimed them in 2020.

The poll indicates that most voters in Wisconsin have already made their choices, with only 2% remaining undecided. Among those committed to their votes, various reasons are driving their decisions. Robert Olin, a 68-year-old Milwaukee resident, expressed his support for Trump, citing disappointment with the current administration’s handling of the economy and foreign policy.

Olin, who owns a coffee shop, described the effects of inflation as “very, very dramatic” on his business, emphasizing how rising costs have turned a simple cup of coffee into a luxury for many customers.

“I strongly agree with his position of healing the country,” Olin stated, echoing his support for Trump from the previous election.

Conversely, 70-year-old Mary Beth LaHaye from Milwaukee plans to vote for Harris, citing her ability to work across party lines and her commitment to crucial issues such as Social Security, Medicare. “Our political system right now is broken,” LaHaye remarked, highlighting her desire for bipartisan cooperation.

The poll also reveals significant gender differences in support for the candidates. Harris enjoys a 14-point lead over Trump among women in Wisconsin, 55% to 41%. In contrast, Trump holds an 18-point advantage among men, 56% to 38%. This gender gap is more pronounced in Wisconsin compared to national trends, where Harris has a 17-point edge among women, while Trump has a 16-point lead among men.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted that Trump is mobilizing male voters more effectively than during the last election cycle.

“Trump is identifying, or that, men are mobilizing behind Trump more than they did when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said.

Another Trump supporter, Paul Zarling from Brookfield, emphasized the former president’s track record, expressing uncertainty about Harris’s accomplishments as vice president. “He was president before; nothing happened, there was no doom and gloom,” said Zarling, who typically votes Republican.

With Election Day looming, both candidates are intensifying their efforts to sway voters in this pivotal state, making Wisconsin one of the few focal points of the 2024 election narrative.

Winning Wisconsin would unlock the path to victory for Donald Trump without having to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or even Nevada. Carrying Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina would be enough as long as there’s no unexpected blue or red state flip on the horizon. That can certainly always happen though.

Stay tuned to the DC Daily Journal.

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